Should the NHL Change its Playoff Format?
April 4, 2019The 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs are set to begin next week, with the puck dropping on Wednesday, April 10. While teams are still jockeying for position in both conferences, one common complaint continues to come up among NHL players: the league’s playoff format.
Currently, the way the playoffs are structured in the National Hockey League is the top-three teams from each division qualify for a chance at Lord Stanley’s Cup, with the next two-best teams in each conference qualifying as a wild-card team. The team with the highest regular season point total in each conference faces the lower of the two wild-card teams in the first round, while the other division winner takes on the higher seeded wild card. The teams that finish second and third in their respective divisions meet each other in the first round.
The reason this is a problem for certain teams – most notably, the Toronto Maple Leafs – is that they are stuck playing against a team that’s far superior than teams seeded below them in the overall conference standings have to play. For example, the first-round matchup between Toronto and the Boston Bruins has already been determined. The Bruins – currently the east’s No. 2 seed – will have home ice against the Maple Leafs, who are currently in fourth place in the conference. In comparison, the Pittsburgh Penguins – the No. 6 seed in the east – are projected to take on the New York Islanders in round one, a team that sits one spot below the Maple Leafs in the eastern conference with two games to go in the regular season.
The NHL and the NHLPA have agreed to a one-year extension of the current divisional alignment and playoff format. The matter will continue to be discussed between the two sides moving forward. So earliest change would be for 2020-21 if/when there is change.
— Pierre LeBrun (@PierreVLeBrun) April 3, 2019
The league and the NHL Players’ Association have already come to an agreement for next season, with both sides extending the current playoff format for another year, through 2020. Beyond that, however? The earliest changes could be made is the 2020-21 NHL season, one season prior to the expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement between the NHL and the NHLPA. Both sides have reportedly began discussing the next labor agreement and both sides also have the option to opt-out of the current CBA in September, 2019.
With no changes on the horizon just yet, let’s think of what could have been if the NHL had a simple 1-to-8-seed playoff format for each conference, just like the NBA’s current model, and how it compares to matchups under the current format:
Eastern Conference
No. 1 Tampa Bay Lightning vs. No. 8 Columbus Blue Jackets
Currently, this series would be the same no matter what the format is. Entering Thursday night, Columbus is the current second wild card in the east, but also sit in eighth place when sorted by conference standings. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has been at the top of the league all season, as evidenced by the team’s early Presidents’ Trophy victory in mid-March.
Since being first awarded in 1985-86, only one team has required fewer contests to clinch the Presidents’ Trophy than the @TBLightning (73 GP). #NHLStats #ARIvsTBL pic.twitter.com/YfcmhoO3CG
— NHL Public Relations (@PR_NHL) March 19, 2019
Only one team has clinched the Presidents’ Trophy sooner than Tampa Bay did this year, with that team being the 1995-96 Detroit Red Wings. Anything short of a Stanley Cup victory for Tampa Bay would be looked at as a letdown considering the way the team has dominated the league for the entirety of the year.
Meanwhile, the Blue Jackets continue to fight for a playoff berth, which would be the team’s third consecutive postseason appearance. The Blue Jackets sit in a tie with the Montreal Canadiens for the east’s second wild-card spot with 94 points and two games to go in the regular season. After mortgaging the future by going all-in this season, failing to make the playoffs would be a disappointing end to the season for John Tortorella’s team.
The fate of Columbus has yet to be determined as the Blue Jackets could finish as high as third in the Metropolitan Division, or as low as ninth in the conference at this point. While this is the matchup currently being predicted, it could be any of the Blue Jackets, Canadiens, Carolina Hurricanes or Pittsburgh Penguins taking on the Lightning in round one.
No. 2 Boston Bruins vs. No. 7 Carolina Hurricanes
Embed from Getty ImagesThis, clearly, is impossible to happen in the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs, but would have been a fun series. A fast and skilled team in the Hurricanes against a stingy Boston Bruins defense that has allowed the third-fewest goals across the NHL would have been an interesting matchup, but instead it will be the Toronto Maple Leafs taking on the Bruins for the third time since the 2013 lockout-shortened season.
The Bruins have been a team that have haunted the Maple Leafs over the years, most memorable being the Game 7 comeback victory in 2013 ending with Patrice Bergeron’s overtime winner. It might not be fair to the Leafs to have to face the second-best team in the east in the first round, but unfortunately for them it’s the hand the team was dealt.
As for the Hurricanes, Carolina currently sits as the top-seeded wild card, and the team’s reward is expected to be a date with the defending Stanley Cup champion Washington Capitals. If the standings remain the way they currently are, this would be the first postseason meeting between the two teams, including the Hartford Whalers’ history. It would be a meeting of two former Southeast Division rivals, both of which were moved to the newly-created Metropolitan Division in 2013.
No. 3 Washington Capitals vs. No. 6 Pittsburgh Penguins
Embed from Getty ImagesOne reason why the NHL has the format in place it currently does is to avoid situations like this one – where two top rivals play each other immediately in the first round. The NHL’s current format is in place to allow for divisional rivalries to continue into the playoffs, with round two being between the winner of the 2/3 matchup and the winner of the 1/WC matchup.
However, if the NHL’s playoff format was a simple 1-8 format, this would be one of the top first round matchups of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Two longtime rivals in Sidney Crosby and Alexander Ovechkin would go head-to-head for the fourth consecutive season and the fifth since both players entered the league. Until last year, Ovechkin’s Capitals hadn’t been able to solve Crosby’s Penguins in the postseason, but that curse was broken en route to Washington’s first-ever Stanley Cup victory.
Instead of being gifted with this matchup in the first round, the Capitals are currently on-pace to win the Metropolitan Division and take on the top wild-card team, which appears to be the previously mentioned Carolina Hurricanes. The Penguins, on the other hand, are currently third in the Metro and would take on the New York Islanders in the first round.
No. 4 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. No. 5 New York Islanders
Embed from Getty ImagesI had mentioned that the series between Washington and Pittsburgh would be one of the top matchups of the first round – this might be the best one.
A rivalry has been brewing between the Maple Leafs and the Islanders after John Tavares departed Long Island for his hometown of Toronto last July. The Islanders produced a pair of statement victories against Tavares’ Leafs in the first two games against them – winning them both, 4-0 and 6-1 respectively – until Tavares’ game-winning goal at NYCB Live: Home of the Nassau Coliseum marked his first win against his former team.
Embed from Getty ImagesThe reaction Tavares received from the crowd on Feb. 28 was an unforgettable one, and one would think that the emotion would only be amplified in a heated playoff series. Tavares would be given the challenge of silencing his critics on Long Island and give himself one more reason to believe he made the right move to sign with the Maple Leafs. The Islanders can get revenge against their former captain and their general manager’s previous employer.
Instead, the Maple Leafs are at the greatest disadvantage among the teams in the Eastern Conference, having to go to battle against the Boston Bruins instead – a stronger team than the Islanders. The Islanders lose out on the challenge of getting back at Tavares and instead will likely face off with Sidney Crosby and the Penguins – a team they had lost to in the first round six years prior.
Western Conference
No. 1 Calgary Flames vs. No. 8 Colorado Avalanche
Embed from Getty ImagesJust like the two counterparts in the east, the top-seeded team takes on the second wild-card team in the 1-8 format. In this matchup, the Calgary Flames take on the Colorado Avalanche for the first time in franchise history.
After hiring Bill Peters to be the team’s head coach last summer, the Flames have run away with the Western Conference. Mark Giordano should be a Norris Trophy finalist, Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan have had strong seasons, and GM Brad Treliving looks like a genius for shipping forward Micheal Ferland and defenseman Dougie Hamilton (and prospect Adam Fox) to Carolina last summer for defenseman Noah Hanifin and forward Elias Lindholm.
In Colorado, the season could already be considered a success before the playoffs even begin – the team has the highest odds to win the first-overall pick in this summer’s draft thanks to the Ottawa Senators finishing last in the league. But even with Jack Hughes or Kappo Kakko on the way, the Avalanche are still likely to qualify for a playoff spot. Forwards Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen have had career years and if their line can continue to score and get healthy, the Avalanche could make some noise in the first round.
No. 2 San Jose Sharks vs. No. 7 Dallas Stars
Embed from Getty ImagesAnother similarity between the east and the west, with the west’s second seed taking on a team that’s not as skilled as the team they are matched up with under the NHL’s current format.
The Sharks will be taking on the defending conference champions in the Vegas Golden Knights – a team that has showed no signs of slowing down during its sophomore season – instead of the Dallas Stars. While Dallas ranks second in the NHL in goals against, the team has had difficulty scoring all season, ranking 29th in the statistic. Meanwhile, the Sharks’ opponent in the Golden Knights have scored 40 more goals than the Stars this season, something that the Sharks may have trouble with after allowing the 22nd most goals against in the NHL.
Goaltending has been an issue for the Sharks this season, with starting goalie Martin Jones posting a sub-.900 save percentage. The Golden Knights don’t have the same issue as San Jose, as starter Marc-Andre Fleury holds a .914 save percentage this season and Vegas has allowed the 10th fewest goals all season entering Thursday night.
As for the Stars, they will likely be taking on one of the Winnipeg Jets, Nashville Predators or St. Louis Blues. All three teams are separated by just one point for the Central Division lead with two games to go each, so the division title – and the Stars’ first-round opponent – will likely come down to the wire.
No. 3 Winnipeg Jets vs. No. 6 Vegas Golden Knights
Embed from Getty ImagesWhile the Sharks aren’t so fortunate in reality, the Jets are. Under a 1-8 conference format, the Jets would be taking on the Golden Knights instead of the top wild-card team in Dallas. A rematch of last year’s Western Conference Finals would be an exciting way to kick off the opening round of this year’s playoffs, with the Jets hoping to get their revenge on the team that pulled off the upset in its first season.
Winnipeg sits atop the Central Division with two games remaining in the regular season, and a division title would provide the team with a first-round series against the Dallas Stars. Between the Stars and the Golden Knights, the Jets should fare much better against its division rival Dallas than it would against the Knights.
As for Vegas, it has already been determined that the second-year team will be going up against the San Jose Sharks for the second year in a row after taking down the Sharks in six games one year ago in the second round.
No. 4 Nashville Predators vs. No. 5 St. Louis Blues
Embed from Getty ImagesLike the top seeds in each conference, this is a matchup that’s happening under both formats. The Central Division’s second-place team and third-place team would go against one another regardless on how you want to seed them.
The Predators and GM David Poile were busy at the February Trade Deadline, acquiring center Mikael Granlund and winger Wayne Simmonds in separate deals to prepare for a deep playoff run. Making their fifth-straight playoff appearance, the Predators always seem to be a team that’s “right there” but can’t put it all together in the form of a Stanley Cup championship, including in 2017 when the team lost in six games to the Pittsburgh Penguins in the Stanley Cup Finals.
St. Louis is a team that nobody thought would be in this position just three months ago. The Blues were in last place in the entire NHL on January 2, behind teams such as Ottawa and Los Angeles. In just three months, the Blues went from worst to almost first, and still have a chance at catching the division-leading Jets with two games left. Following six consecutive postseason appearances and one conference final appearance, the Blues failed to qualify for the 2018 playoffs just a season ago.
Unless either team manages to pass Winnipeg before the season ends, this will likely be your No. 2 vs. No. 3 matchup in the Central Division.
Just For Fun: 1-16
If the Stanley Cup playoffs started today, here’s how each series would look based on current position in the overall standings:
1 vs. 13
2 vs. 17
3 vs. 5
4 vs. 12
6 vs. 7
8 vs. 15
9 vs. 16
10 vs. 11— Chris Johnston (@reporterchris) April 2, 2019
Now that both conferences have been covered in detail if the format were to be changed to 1-8 in each conference, what if the league just went for a 1-16 format instead, but with the eight best teams from each conference? Well, it would look like this:
No. 1 Tampa Bay Lightning vs. No. 17 Colorado Avalanche
No. 2 Calgary Flames vs. No. 16 Dallas Stars
No. 3 Boston Bruins vs. No. 15 Vegas Golden Knights
No. 4 Washington Capitals vs. No. 13 Columbus Blue Jackets
No. 5 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. No. 12 St. Louis Blues
No. 6 New York Islanders vs. No. 11 Carolina Hurricanes
No. 7 San Jose Sharks vs. No. 10 Nashville Predators
No. 8 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. No. 9 Washington Capitals
This is something that, obviously, won’t ever happen due to travel constraints, but it certainly provides some interesting matchups! Also, notice how there is no 14-seed listed above, that’s because it belongs to the nine-seed in the east, the Montreal Canadiens. Even though it’s a 1-16 format, it’s still balanced with the top-8 from each conference.
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