Mid-season NHL Award Prediction Series: Who will win the Norris Trophy?

The Fan Verdict’s mid-season NHL Award prediction series continues after having looked at who the league’s most valuable player is thus far.

Now we take a look at the possible candidates for the top defenseman in the National Hockey League, and who might end up taking home the Norris Memorial Trophy from Vegas this year.

The James Norris Memorial Trophy – NHL’s Best Defenseman

Three of the last five Norris Trophy winners have come from the Western conference, with Erik Karlsson making it four following his move from Ottawa to San Jose in the offseason. Will the Norris Trophy make a return to the west this summer? Or will it remain in the Eastern Conference after Tampa Bay’s Victor Hedman received the honor last season?

Mark Giordano – Calgary Flames

Calgary’s captain makes the list of finalists for the 2019 Norris Trophy as he continues a strong season on the Flames’ back-end.

Giordano currently ranks second in scoring among all defensemen in the NHL with 52 points in just 49 games, averaging over a point-per-game so far this season, something he hasn’t done once throughout his career. The 35-year-old Canadian is on pace to shatter his career-high 56 points set during the 2015-16 season.

Giordano has shown his ability to drive play over the course of his career, owning a 53.1 CF% over 13 years, including 55.5 percent this season despite less than half of his shifts starting in the offensive zone (courtesy Natural Stat Trick).

His Flames rank 11th in the NHL in goals against thanks to strong goaltending from David Rittich, but Giordano and his fellow defensemen have been a huge reason for the team’s success and are why the Flames sit atop the Western conference.

Brent Burns – San Jose Sharks

The eccentric defenseman leads the way this season when you look at the scoring leaders for his position. Burns is up to 55 points in 52 games so far this season, including 46 assists, which leads all defensemen.

The 2017 Norris Trophy winner is showing no signs of slowing down with his 34th birthday just over a month away, as he’s just 12 points off his regular season total of 67 from a year ago.

Burns ranks sixth in the NHL in CF% at 57.46 percent, which would be his highest number since 2014 when he finished the year with a 57.3 CF% in 69 games.

The defensive group of Burns, Erik Karlsson and Marc-Edouard Vlasic has played a key role for San Jose this season. Head coach Peter DeBoer will continue to lean on Burns, who leads the Sharks in points and ranks second behind Karlsson in time-on-ice, as the team hopes to pass the Calgary Flames for first in the Pacific.

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Erik Karlsson – San Jose Sharks

Another Shark is in the running for the Norris this season, as Erik Karlsson has been on a torrid pace after a slow start following his offseason move to the Bay Area.

The two-time Norris Trophy winner began his tenure in San Jose with just 15 points in 26 games and didn’t score his first goal until November, but has picked up the pace since then. Karlsson finished the month of January with 11 assists in eight games and 27 points in his last 18 games. That includes eight points in three games to start January, and back-to-back three assist games in wins against the Los Angeles Kings and Edmonton Oilers.

Good Lord. Erik Karlsson has 22 points (1 G, 21 A) during a 13-game point streak over the past month. 62.2 CF%, 58.1 SCF%, 64.7 GF% in that span.— Scott Cullen (@ByScottCullen) January 8, 2019

The 28-year-old Swede leads all defensemen (minimum 300 minutes TOI) in CF% this season at 59.49 percent and should lead the Sharks through the final two months of the season as he has all season, leading the team in time-on-ice.

The Winner: Mark Giordano – Calgary Flames

While both Sharks teammates are having incredible seasons, it’s hard to ignore what Mark Giordano has been doing north of the border. Arguably the biggest snub from this year’s All-Star Game, Giordano has quietly been the NHL’s best defenseman this season and should be rewarded for his play in the form of his first-career Norris Trophy in June.

His Flames continue to surprise the league as they sit atop the Western conference and a strong finish to the season for the Toronto native should seal his victory.