Mid-season NHL Award Prediction Series: Who will win the Vezina Trophy?

February 17, 2019 Off By William Fitzpatrick

The Fan Verdict’s NHL Award predictions are coming close to an end after already reviewing those competing for this year’s Hart Trophy, Norris Trophy, Calder Trophy and the Jack Adams Award. But we can’t ignore the masked men between the pipes in the National Hockey League who are competing for this year’s Vezina Trophy.

The Vezina Trophy – NHL’s top goalie

The Vezina Trophy is awarded to the NHL’s top goaltender each year and is voted on by general managers across the league. With so many quality goalies deserving of being nominated for this award, here are the top three finalists following the All-Star break.

Frederik Andersen – Toronto Maple Leafs

There is so much talk about the high-flying Maple Leafs with stars such as Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and John Tavares scoring at will, but a major reason for the Leafs’ success this season has been their goalie.

Among goalies to play at least 1000 minutes at 5v5, Andersen ranks third in GSAA (goals saved above average), has faced the fifth most shots, has a 5v5 save percentage of .932 and ranks fifth in the NHL with a .923 save percentage overall entering Saturday.

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The Danish goaltender, acquired by former-GM Lou Lamoriello in June, 2016, is posting his best season as a Maple Leaf since joining the team nearly three years ago. In his two prior seasons in Toronto, Andersen recorded a .918 save percentage, but has not been able to get the Leafs past the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs in either of the two seasons the team has qualified.

Andrei Vasilevskiy – Tampa Bay Lightning

Despite a broken foot keeping him out for a few weeks earlier in the year, Andrei Vasilevskiy has been one of the main reasons for the NHL-leading Tampa Bay Lightning’s success this season.

The two-time All-Star leads the entire NHL in all-situations GSAA at 21.07, sits third in save percentage with a .927 save percentage and, despite missing time, still ranks 16th in time-on-ice, so he hasn’t lacked any sort of playing time when healthy.

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On a team with the NHL’s leading scorer in Nikita Kucherov, as well as other notable scorers such as Steven Stamkos and Brayden Point, it has been Vasilevskiy’s goaltending that has been a difference at times during the season.

At 5-on-5, the Russian goalie ranks 10th in GSAA with a 8.33 goals saved above average and 10th in save percentage at .928 percent entering Saturday. He’s also second in the league in shutouts with five, just one behind Vegas Golden Knights goalie Marc-Andre Fleury.

tracking some of the top goalies YTD
Vezina race is wide open with Gibson finally faltering behind a porous defense
Lehner & Vasilevskiy still fairly clean bodies of work so far
Andersen average stretch but still impressive overall
PHWA willed MAF into the conversation sorta pic.twitter.com/BHV7WSI6tD
— Cole Anderson (@ice_cole_data) February 8, 2019

As Tampa Bay continues to chase the President’s Trophy, Vasilevskiy is likely to continue his domination between the pipes.

Robin Lehner – New York Islanders

In his first season on Long Island, Lehner has resurrected his career after seeking help for mental illness and substance abuse he had battled for years.

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The Swedish goalie enters Saturday’s game just a fraction behind his teammate, Thomas Greiss, for the league lead in save percentage (.930 to .929), ranks first in goals-against-average at 2.08, has three shutouts and at 5v5 ranks fourth in GSAA with a 10.79 GSAA.

All-situations goalie charts are updated.

If Vezina voting was based on modern stats, we’d have Gibson vs Lehner vs Greiss. Good odds for NYI, as we all suspected when they entered the season with this proven goaltending tandem.https://t.co/sL1luyKmwQ pic.twitter.com/f0yzYlC3jB
— Sean Tierney (@ChartingHockey) February 13, 2019

The only knock on Lehner’s season is the amount of work he’s had, starting just 29 games for the Islanders while splitting starts with the aforementioned Greiss. The two have started 29 and 28 games, respectively, with each winning 17 of those games.

Drafted by the Ottawa Senators in the second round of the 2009 NHL Entry Draft, the talent was always there for Lehner, but the success never came until recently. The 27-year-old posted back-to-back seasons with save percentages of at least .920 for poor playing Buffalo Sabres teams, but Lehner never had success like he’s had with the Islanders this season.

Should Lehner receive the bulk of the starts down the stretch from head coach Barry Trotz and he keeps up this level of play, he could continue to be talked about in the conversation for the Vezina Trophy.

The NHL’s Vezina Trophy, awarded to the league’s top goaltender (credit/NHL.com).

The Winner: Andrei Vasilevskiy – Tampa Bay Lightning

With so many quality choices for this award, including others left out of the top three, it’s hard to ignore what Vasilevskiy has done for the league-leading Tampa Bay Lightning this season.

Anytime you have a team as dominant as Tampa Bay has been this season, with such an enormous lead over the rest of the NHL, goaltending is a major reason why. Tampa Bay’s offense leads the league in goals scored, but the team ranks fifth in goals against and has an incredible +70 goal-differential entering Saturday.

This award is a bit of a toss-up between the three candidates, but at this point the honor goes to Vasilevskiy.