Mid-season NHL Award Prediction Series: Who will win the Calder Trophy?

The Fan Verdict’s mid-season NHL Award prediction series continues as we now look at some of the young faces taking the National Hockey League by storm with their impressive rookie seasons.

So far we have already taken a look at the league’s best defensemen, and who could win this year’s Hart Trophy, now we look at those competing for this year’s Calder Memorial Trophy.

The Calder Memorial Trophy – NHL’s Rookie of the Year

The NHL has only seen one rookie defenseman win the Calder Trophy since 2010, that being 2014 first-overall selection and Florida Panthers defenseman Aaron Ekblad in 2015. It’s also been a full decade since the award was given to a goaltender, with former Blue Jackets goalie Steve Mason winning it as a 20-year-old in 2009. This year, however, the top three nominees happen to play three different positions:

Elias Pettersson – Vancouver Canucks

The 20-year-old Swede is the clear front-runner for the award at the midway point of the season, despite missing some time due to injury.

Pettersson is the only rookie to score at a point-per-game pace this season, with 46 points in just 42 games, 18 points ahead of second place Rasmus Dahlin and a full 20 points ahead of the next closest forward. Pettersson is also the only rookie forward from this year’s class to attend the 2019 NHL All-Star Game.

The fifth overall selection from the 2017 NHL Entry Draft has his team sitting in the second wild card spot, two points ahead of the Colorado Avalanche for the final playoff spot in the West, which is something not many predicted at the start of the season.

The only knock on Pettersson is his incredibly high shooting percentage, which leads the league at 27.7 percent this season. Some may worry his shooting percentage could regress, resulting in a slump for the rookie phenom, but if Pettersson can keep up his pace in the second half, he should continue to find the back of the net without any issue.

Rasmus Dahlin – Buffalo Sabres

The rookie who ranks second in scoring comes in the form of a defenseman, as the first-overall pick from last year’s draft trails only the aforementioned Pettersson in scoring, although by 18 points. Still, 28 points in 51 games for an 18-year-old defenseman is no small feat.

Dahlin has been everything Sabres general manager Jason Botterill could have asked for when he took the Swedish defenseman with the first pick last June. The 18-year-old has proven he can play at the NHL level without any issues, as he averages the third highest time-on-ice on the Sabres, trailing fellow defensemen Rasmus Ristolainen and Zach Bogosian.

Dahlin has controlled play while on the ice this season, leading all Sabres in CF% (minimum 350 minutes played) at 52.4 percent. He also leads all Sabres defensemen in takeaways with 21, which also ranks third across the entire roster behind only Jeff Skinner and Jack Eichel.

Only three defensemen have won the Calder Trophy in the 21st century, but a strong second half from Dahlin could give voters something to think about.

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Carter Hart – Philadelphia Flyers

Yes, the 20-year-old has only played 15 games this season, and there are other rookie goalies that could be considered instead of Hart, but hear me out.

Recalling Carter Hart from AHL Lehigh Valley might have been the breath of fresh air the Philadelphia Flyers have needed all season. After firing general manager Ron Hextall, replacing him with Chuck Fletcher, and replacing head coach Dave Hakstol with Scott Gordon, it was clear that it was the roster that needed to be addressed.

While Hextall reportedly wanted to be more patient with the 2016 second-round pick, others in the organization disagreed with that philosophy. It only took new GM Chuck Fletcher 15 days on the job to give Hart a chance between the pipes, and he has been nothing short of stellar since taking over.

#Flyers were in 31st place on Jan. 9. They were 14 points back of a playoff spot a week ago at All-Star break. They are five points back of #CBJ now and Carter Hart is making it a Calder conversation. Hart has .925 SV% in 16 GP, second goalie ever to win 7 straight under age 21.

— Frank Seravalli (@frank_seravalli) February 5, 2019

Philadelphia is currently riding an eight game winning streak, and Hart has won each of his last seven starts. His .925 save percentage leads all NHL rookie goaltenders (minimum 15 games played) and with Brian Elliott and Michal Neuvirth still out of commission, Fletcher might have to make a decision to make. If Hart can keep up this level of play, one of Philadelphia’s goalies on one-way contracts might have to be moved ahead of the Feb. 25 trade deadline.

Time will tell if Hart can continue his impressive start to his NHL career, but his recent play makes him a dark-horse Calder candidate.

The Winner: Elias Pettersson – Vancouver Canucks

Already stated, Pettersson remains the front-runner for this award because of the way he has dominated the National Hockey League since the start of the season. While Dahlin, Hart, and other rookies not named have impressed this season, nobody comes close to having the same success and impact on their team that Pettersson has had.

Barring a second half collapse, expect Pettersson to take the Calder with him back home to Sweden this June.

Stats courtesy hockey-reference.com, images credit canucks.com, The Canadian Press, NBC Sports.