Mid-season NHL Awards Prediction Series: Who will win the Hart Memorial Trophy?

The 2019 NHL All Star Game in San Jose, CA has come to a conclusion and teams are beginning to reconvene with the second half of the 2018-19 NHL season underway. Ten teams are coming off their mandated bye week following All Star Weekend, while the league’s remaining 21 teams are currently enjoying their week off.

With a break in action from the regular season schedule, it’s time to take a look at who’s making a case to win some hardware at the 2019 NHL Awards in June. The Fan Verdict will be releasing a series of articles over the next week highlighting each award and its potential winners based on their performance midway through the season, starting with the:

Hart Memorial Trophy – NHL’s Regular Season MVP

Johnny Gaudreau – Calgary Flames

As of Jan. 28, Gaudreau’s Flames sit atop the NHL’s Western conference, and with a commanding lead. Calgary’s 71 points gives them a six point gap between them and the San Jose Sharks, who are in second place in both the conference and Pacific division.

Gaudreau and his center, Sean Monahan, are putting up numbers that have them both in the top-10 in league scoring, ranking third and ninth, respectively. The 25-year-old wing is just 11 points behind his career-high 84 point season with 31 games still to be played. He’s also just one goal away from tying his career high 30 goal season, a number he hit back in 2015-16. Gaudreau is also showing he doesn’t need the man advantage to find the back of the net, as 24 of his 29 goals have come at even strength.

Nikita Kucherov – Tampa Bay Lightning

The Art Ross leader as of Jan. 28, Kucherov’s stats make him a clear candidate for the league’s Hart trophy. The Russian winger has been on a tear since an average (by his standards) start to the season. After a very respectable 12 points in his first 11 games, Kucherov has managed to put up 66 points in just 38 games – a 142-point-pace over an 82 game season – giving him 78 points this season and a four point lead over Colorado’s Mikko Rantanen.

Kucherov is well on his way to his second consecutive 100 point season, and the 25 year old likely has a Ted Lindsay Award in his future for the league’s “most outstanding player,” and his Tampa Bay Lightning should run away with the President’s Trophy barring a late season collapse.

Connor McDavid – Edmonton Oilers

The first overall pick of the 2015 NHL Entry Draft continues to dominate the National Hockey League, as he’s tied for third in points (73), goals (29), fourth in even strength goals (22), and second in game-winning goals (7). The 22-year-old is also coming off a successful 2019 NHL All Star Weekend, having won the NHL’s fastest skater competition for a third year in a row.

While McDavid’s aforementioned stats are impressive, the most astounding statistic is how well he performs compared to the rest of his Oilers teammates. McDavid has recorded 29 goals and 44 assists this season, totaling 73 points in just 49 games. The Edmonton Oilers have collectively scored 144 goals as a team in 50 games (McDavid missed one game due to illness). This means McDavid has been responsible for more than half of his team’s total offense this season, contributing on just slightly over 50 percent of Edmonton’s goals throughout the 2018-19 season.

The Winner: Connor McDavid – Edmonton Oilers

While all three finalists have a case to bring home the league’s most valuable player award, my choice for the 2019 Hart Memorial Trophy goes to the Oilers’ captain simply because he defines what the award is all about, being the most “valuable.” Both Kucherov and Gaudreau are having incredible seasons, but they each account for less than 40 percent of their team’s offense.

McDavid being responsible for more than half of an entire team’s offense, this late into the season, is simply too impressive to ignore, giving him the edge over his fellow wingers.